IMF：今年MENA石油出口國非碳?xì)浠衔锘顒訉⑼侠跥DP增長-全球資訊

中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶5月4日報道，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）本周表示，作為中東和北非（MENA）石油出口經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長驅(qū)動力的非碳?xì)浠衔锘顒訉⒃?023年減緩其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的增長。

中東和北非地區(qū)石油出口國預(yù)計(jì)GDP將集體增長3.7%，由于充足的流動性、持續(xù)的改革勢頭和私人投資的迅速加速，零售和服務(wù)業(yè)的積極勢頭得以維持，部分抵消了主要貿(mào)易伙伴增長緩慢的影響。

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該行在其中東和中亞經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報告中表示，向非石油收入來源的轉(zhuǎn)變在石油減產(chǎn)中表現(xiàn)得很明顯。歐佩克+已將該集團(tuán)的日減產(chǎn)量限制在200萬桶，自2022年11月至2023年12月生效。歐佩克+所屬的8個國家在4月2日進(jìn)一步表示，他們將在去年達(dá)成集體減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的基礎(chǔ)上削減產(chǎn)量。歐佩克成員國阿爾及利亞、伊拉克、科威特、沙特和阿聯(lián)酋以及歐佩克盟友哈薩克斯坦、阿曼和產(chǎn)能大國隨后也陸續(xù)宣布減產(chǎn)，這意味著從5月到12月，日產(chǎn)量將減少164.9萬桶。

IMF將中東和北非地區(qū)2022年的實(shí)際GDP增長預(yù)測上調(diào)至5.3%，由于石油出口國巴林、卡塔爾、沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋以及石油進(jìn)口國約旦、毛里塔尼亞、摩洛哥和突尼斯的增長高于預(yù)期。但國際貨幣基金組織對2023年提出了不同的設(shè)想。

這家總部位于華盛頓的機(jī)構(gòu)表示，中東和北非地區(qū)石油出口國的實(shí)際GDP增長預(yù)計(jì)將從2022年的5.7%放緩至2023年的3.1%（并在2024年大致保持這一速度），因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)石油出口國增長的主要驅(qū)動力將轉(zhuǎn)向非碳?xì)浠衔锘顒?，這反映了減產(chǎn)的效力。

國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)計(jì)，2023年和2024年的石油現(xiàn)貨均價分別為每桶74.2美元和70美元，低于2022年10月的85.5美元和80.2美元。該機(jī)構(gòu)補(bǔ)充稱，石油期貨曲線顯示，到2028年，油價將跌至每桶62.70美元。

據(jù)IMF稱，高加索和中亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)體預(yù)計(jì)今年將放緩至4.3%，2024年將反彈至4.5%。

能源價格對家庭和經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響

據(jù)報告稱，盡管預(yù)計(jì)油價將下跌，但家庭的能源成本仍然很高。在短期內(nèi)，在財(cái)政空間允許的情況下，各國應(yīng)優(yōu)先考慮有針對性的臨時支持，并提供現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移支付，以保護(hù)最弱勢群體免受居高不下的能源和食品價格的影響。

在宏觀層面，IMF建議石油出口經(jīng)濟(jì)體“謹(jǐn)慎管理石油收入，避免擴(kuò)大經(jīng)常性支出，提高預(yù)算透明度”。并補(bǔ)充道，財(cái)政努力應(yīng)通過繼續(xù)調(diào)動非石油收入，通過改革提高稅收效率和工資賬單合理化，來應(yīng)對氣候變化、能源轉(zhuǎn)型和經(jīng)濟(jì)多樣化帶來的挑戰(zhàn)。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Economies of MENA Oil Exporters Set to Dip This Year: IMF

A shift to non-hydrocarbon activities as the driver of growth in oil-exporting economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is poised to slow down their gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said this week.

MENA oil exporters are forecast to log a collective 3.7 percent increase in GDP “as the positive momentum in the retail and service sectors (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) is sustained thanks to abundant liquidity, continued reform momentum, and rapid acceleration of private investment (Saudi Arabia), partially offsetting the impact of slow growth in major trading partners”.

The shift to non-oil revenue sources is evident in oil production cuts, the lender said in its economic outlook report for the Middle East and Central Asia. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) has set a group output curb of two million barrels per day (bpd) effective November 2022 to December 2023. Eight OPEC+ nations further said April 2 they will trim output on top of the collective rollback agreed on last year. The separate announcements by OPEC members Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi and the United Arab Emirates and OPEC allies Kazakhstan, Oman and the largger producer mean a combined reduction of 1.649 million bpd from May to December.

The IMF upgraded its real GDP growth projection for the MENA region for 2022 to 5.3 percent due to higher-than-expected growth in oil exporters Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as oil importers Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. But the IMF presented a different scenario for 2023.

“Real GDP growth for MENA oil exporters is expected to slow from 5.7 percent in 2022 to 3.1 percent in 2023 (and to broadly maintain that pace in 2024) as the main driver of growth in most oil exporters shifts to nonhydrocarbon activities, reflecting agreed oil production cuts”, the Washington-based agency said.

For Central Asia and the Caucasus, a decline in oil prices is likely to drag down current account balances for oil exporters in the region by 5.4 percent of GDP on average. The IMF projected average petroleum spot prices at $74.2 a barrel in 2023 and $70 in 2024, down from $85.5 and $80.2 in October 2022 respectively. “Oil futures curves point to prices decreasing toward $62.70 by 2028”, it added.

Economies in Caucasus and Central Asian are expected to decelerate to 4.3 percent this year before rebounding to 4.5 percent in 2024, according to the IMF.

Energy Price Implications on Households, Economies

While oil prices are predicted to fall, the cost of energy has remained heavy for households, the report said.

“In the near term, and where fiscal space permits, countries should prioritize targeted and temporary support, with cash transfers to protect the most vulnerable from still-high energy and food prices”, it said.

At the macro-level, the IMF recommended oil exporting economies “manage oil revenue carefully, avoid expanding current expenditures, and improve budget transparency”.

“Fiscal efforts should address the challenges posed by climate change, the energy transition, and economic diversification by continuing non-oil revenue mobilization with reforms to increase the efficiency of tax collections and wage bill rationalization”, it added.

（責(zé)任編輯：黃振 審核：蔣文娟 ）

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